Cross-country comparisons in health price growth over time.

OBJECTIVE: To examine how the United States compares in terms of health price growth relative to four other countries - Australia, Canada, France, and the Netherlands. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING: Secondary data on health expenditure were extracted from international and national agencies spanning the years 2000-2020. STUDY DESIGN: International price indices specific to health were constructed using available international expenditure data and compared to existing health-specific national and general international price indices. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Health expenditure data were extracted from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) database. We obtained a time series of health price indices from the national agencies in each of the study countries. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We find meaningful variation across countries in the rate at which health prices grow relative to general prices. The United States had the highest cumulative health price growth compared to general price growth over the years 2000-2020 at 14%, followed by Canada and the Netherlands. Unlike the other study countries, health prices in France grew consistently in line with general prices. Price growth for health care paid for by public funds and households grew at different rates across countries, where price growth was higher for public payers. US households faced the greatest mean annual price growth. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of price index has major implications for comparative analysis. Despite their widespread use internationally, general price indices likely underestimate the contribution of price growth to overall health expenditure growth. We find that in addition to its reputation for having high health price levels compared to other high-income countries, the United States also faces health price growth for goods and services paid for by government and households in excess of general price growth. Furthermore, US households are exposed to greater health price growth than households in comparator countries.

Monitoring progress towards universal health coverage in Europe: a descriptive analysis of financial protection in 40 countries.

Background: Ensuring that access to health care is affordable for everyone-financial protection-is central to universal health coverage (UHC). Financial protection is commonly measured using indicators of financial barriers to access (unmet need for health care) and financial hardship caused by out-of-pocket payments for health care (impoverishing and catastrophic health spending). We aim to assess financial hardship and unmet need in Europe and identify the coverage policy choices that undermine financial protection. Methods: We carry out a cross-sectional study of financial hardship in 40 countries in Europe in 2019 (the latest available year of data before COVID-19) using microdata from national household budget surveys. We define impoverishing health spending as out-of-pocket payments that push households below or further below a relative poverty line and catastrophic health spending as out-of-pocket payments that exceed 40% of a household's capacity to pay for health care. We link these results to survey data on unmet need for health care, dental care, and prescribed medicines and information on two aspects of coverage policy at country level: the main basis for entitlement to publicly financed health care and user charges for covered services. Findings: Out-of-pocket payments for health care lead to financial hardship and unmet need in every country in the study, particularly for people with low incomes. Impoverishing health spending ranges from under 1% of households (in six countries) to 12%, with a median of 3%. Catastrophic health spending ranges from under 1% of households (in two countries) to 20%, with a median of 6%. Catastrophic health spending is consistently concentrated in the poorest fifth of the population and is largely driven by out-of-pocket payments for outpatient medicines, medical products, and dental care-all forms of treatment that should be an essential part of primary care. The median incidence of catastrophic health spending is three times lower in countries that cover over 99% of the population than in countries that cover less than 99%. In 16 out of the 17 countries that cover less than 99% of the population, the basis for entitlement is payment of contributions to a social health insurance (SHI) scheme. Countries that give greater protection from user charges to people with low incomes have lower levels of catastrophic health spending. Interpretation: It is challenging to identify with certainty the coverage policy choices that undermine financial protection due to the complexity of the policies involved and the difficulty of disentangling the effects of different choices. The conclusions we draw are therefore tentative, though plausible. Countries are more likely to move towards UHC if they reduce out-of-pocket payments in a progressive way, decreasing them for people with low incomes first. Coverage policy choices that seem likely to achieve this include de-linking entitlement from payment of SHI contributions; expanding the coverage of outpatient medicines, medical products, and dental care; limiting user charges; and strengthening protection against user charges, particularly for people with low incomes. Funding: The European Union (DG SANTE and DG NEAR) and the Government of the Autonomous Community of Catalonia, Spain.

The value of healthy ageing: Estimating the economic value of health using time use data.

INTRODUCTION: Economic arguments in favour of investing in health and health care are important for policy making, yet demonstrating the potential economic gains associated with health at older ages can be empirically challenging due to older peoples' limited attachment to the labour market. METHODS: We develop a novel method to quantify the economic value of health through time use data. Using data on people aged 65 years-old and older from the United Kingdom Time Use Survey (UKTUS) 2014-15, we apply survey-weighted generalized linear models to predict the time spent in non-market productive activities conditional on characteristics including age and self-perceived health. We weight these estimates of predicted minutes spent in each activity using household satellite accounts to quantify the monetary value of time spent engaging in non-market productive activities according to health status and simulate the monetary impact of health gains at older ages. RESULTS: Both age and self-perceived health status were associated with minutes spent in many non-market productive activities. Summing the monetized predictions of minutes spent across all types of activities indicates that being in "very good" instead of "very bad" self-perceived health is associated with an additional production of 439£, 629£ and 598£ (in real 2015 GBP) per month for an average individual aged 65 to 74 years-old, 75 to 84 years-old and 85 years-old and older, respectively. Using our simulation model, if 10% of older people in "very bad" health in the United Kingdom were to transition to "very good" health it could lead to an increase of up to 278£ million through the production of non-market activities. CONCLUSIONS: Health at older ages creates considerable economic value which is not observed using standard national accounting measures. Our method to quantify the monetary value of health can be adapted to other settings to make the economic case for investing in healthy ageing.

Consumption and tax gains attributable to Covid-19 vaccinations in 12 EU countries with low vaccination rates.

BACKGROUND: The Covid-19 pandemic is an economic and a health crisis. Households reduced consumption expenditures as large-scale physical distancing measures, lower disposable incomes and fear of infection when engaging in many types of economic activity took hold. This, in turn, reduced domestic tax revenues at a time when governments were facing increased financial pressures to strengthen and sustain welfare states. METHODS: We developed a simulation model, the Covid-19 Taxination Simulator, to estimate potential economic gains and tax revenues attributable to vaccine rollouts. We apply the model to 12 European Union countries which had low vaccination rates at the beginning of 2022. RESULTS: The highest growth in aggregate personal consumption expenditure attributable to Covid-19 vaccines administered as of January 2022 is in Greece (10.8%), Slovenia (8.6%) and Czechia (8.6%), while the lowest is in Bulgaria (2.2%) and Slovakia (2.1%). If countries had vaccinated 85% of their adult population, the largest gains in consumption tax revenues would be expected in Romania (830 million Euros) and Poland (738 million Euros). Consumption tax revenues generated by meeting the 85% of the adult population target would, on their own, be large enough to fully cover the costs of expanding the vaccine rollout itself in Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary and Greece. CONCLUSION: Covid-19 vaccination rollouts not only save lives and relieve pressures on health systems, they also support economic growth and generate additional tax revenues. These revenues can partially offset the costs of vaccines programmes themselves.

Should we adjust health expenditure for age structure on health systems efficiency? A worldwide analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Healthcare expenditure, a common input used in health systems efficiency analyses is affected by population age structure. However, while age structure is usually considered to adjust health system outputs, health expenditure and other inputs are seldom adjusted. We propose methods for adjusting Health Expenditure per Capita (HEpC) for population age structure on health system efficiency analyses and assess the goodness-of-fit, correlation, reliability and disagreement of different approaches. METHODS: We performed a worldwide (188 countries) cross-sectional study of efficiency in 2015, using a stochastic frontier analysis. As single outputs, healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth and at 65 years-old were considered in different models. We developed five models using as inputs: (1) HEpC (unadjusted); (2) age-adjusted HEpC; (3) HEpC and the proportion of 0-14, 15-64 and 65 + years-old; (4) HEpC and 5-year age-groups; and (5) HEpC ageing index. Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, Spearman's rank correlation, intraclass correlation coefficient and information-based measure of disagreement were computed. RESULTS: Models 1 and 2 showed the highest correlation (0.981 and 0.986 for HALE at birth and HALE at 65 years-old, respectively) and reliability (0.986 and 0.988) and the lowest disagreement (0.011 and 0.014). Model 2, with age-adjusted HEpC, presented the lowest information criteria values. CONCLUSIONS: Despite different models showing good correlation and reliability and low disagreement, there was important variability when age structure is considered that cannot be disregarded. The age-adjusted HE model provided the best goodness-of-fit and was the closest option to the current standard.

Can healthy ageing moderate the effects of population ageing on economic growth and health spending trends in Mongolia? A modelling study.

BACKGROUND:  Population ageing will accelerate rapidly in Mongolia in the coming decades. We explore whether this is likely to have deleterious effects on economic growth and health spending trends and whether any adverse consequences might be moderated by ensuring better health among the older population. METHODS:  Fixed-effects models are used to estimate the relationship between the size of the older working-age population (55-69 years) and economic growth from 2020 to 2100 and to simulate how growth is modified by better health among the older working-age population, as measured by a 5% improvement in years lived with disability. We next use 2017 data on per capita health spending by age from the National Health Insurance Fund to project how population ageing will influence public health spending from 2020 to 2060 and how this relationship may change if the older population (≥ 60 years) ages in better or worse health than currently. RESULTS:  The projected increase in the share of the population aged 55-69 years is associated with a 4.1% slowdown in per-person gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 2020 and 2050 and a 5.2% slowdown from 2020 to 2100. However, a 5% reduction in disability rates among the older population offsets these effects and adds around 0.2% to annual per-person GDP growth in 2020, rising to nearly 0.4% per year by 2080. Baseline projections indicate that population ageing will increase public health spending as a share of GDP by 1.35 percentage points from 2020 to 2060; this will occur slowly, adding approximately 0.03 percentage points to the share of GDP annually. Poorer health among the older population (aged ≥ 60 years) would see population ageing add an additional 0.17 percentage points above baseline estimates, but healthy ageing would lower baseline projections by 0.18 percentage points, corresponding to potential savings of just over US$ 46 million per year by 2060. CONCLUSIONS:  Good health at older ages could moderate the potentially negative effects of population ageing on economic growth and health spending trends in Mongolia. Continued investment in the health of older people will improve quality of life, while also enhancing the sustainability of public budgets.

Population ageing and health financing: A method for forecasting two sides of the same coin.

There is a perception that population ageing will have deleterious effects on future health financing sustainability. We propose a new method-the Population Ageing financial Sustainability gap for Health systems (or alternatively, the PASH)-to explore how changes in the population age mix will affect health expenditures and revenues. Using a set of six anonymized country scenarios that are based on data from countries in Europe and the Western Pacific representing a diverse range of health financing systems, we forecast the size of the ageing-attributable gap between health revenues and expenditures from 2020 to 2100 under current health financing arrangements. In the country with the largest financing gap in 2100 (country S6) the majority (87.1%) is caused by growth in health expenditures. However in countries that are heavily reliant on labour-market related social contributions to finance health care, a sizeable share of the financing gap is due to reductions in health revenues. We argue that analyses giving equal attention to both health expenditures and revenues steers decision makers towards a more balanced set of policy options to address the challenges of population ageing, ranging from targeting expenditures and utilization of services to diversifying revenue.

What have European countries done to prevent the spread of COVID-19? Lessons from the COVID-19 Health system response monitor.

Although some European countries imposed measures that successfully slowed the transmission of Covid-19 during the first year of the pandemic, others struggled, either because they acted slowly or implemented measures ineffectively. In this paper we consider the European experience with public health measures designed to prevent transmission of COVID-19. Based on literature and country responses described in the COVID-19 Health System Response Monitor from March 2020 to December 2020, we consider some critical aspects of public health policy responses. These include the importance of public health capacity that can scale up surveillance and outbreak control, including effective testing and contract tracing, of clear messaging based on an understanding of human behaviour, policies that address the undesirable consequences of necessary measures, such as support for those isolating or unable to earn, and the ability to implement at pace and scale a major vaccine rollout. We conclude that for countries to be successful at preventing COVID-19 transmission, there is a need for a clear strategy with explicit goals and a whole systems approach to implementation.

Perspective: Lessons from COVID-19 of countries in the European region in light of findings from the health system response monitor.

Introduction: Decision-makers initially had limited data to inform their policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The research community developed several online databases to track cases, deaths, and hospitalizations; however, a major deficiency was the lack of detailed information on how health systems were responding to the pandemic and how they would need to be transformed going forward. Approach: In an effort to fill this information gap, in March 2020, the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies, the WHO European Regional Office and the European Commission created the COVID-19 Health System Response Monitor (HSRM) to collect and organise up-to-date information on how health systems, mainly in the WHO European Region, were responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: The HSRM analysis and broader Observatory work on COVID-19 shone light on a range of health system challenges and weaknesses and catalogued policy options countries put in place during the pandemic to address these. Countries prioritised policies on investing in public health, supporting the workforce, maintaining financial stability, and strengthening governance in their response to COVID-19. Outlook: COVID-19 is likely to continue to impact health systems for the foreseeable future; the ability to cope with this pressure, and other shocks, depends on having good information on what other countries have done so that health systems develop adequate policy options. In support of this, the country information on the COVID-19 HSRM will remain available as a repository to inform decision makers on options for actions and possible measures against COVID-19 and other public health emergencies. Building on its previous work on health systems resilience, the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies will sustain its focus on analysing key issues related to the recovery from the pandemic and making health systems more resilient. This includes policy knowledge transfer between countries and systematic resilience testing, aiming at contributing to an improved understanding of health system response, recovery, and preparedness. Contribution to the literature in non-technical language: The COVID-19 Health System Response Monitor (HSRM) was the first database in the WHO European Region to collect and organise up-to-date information on how health systems were responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. The HSRM provides a repository of policies which can be used to inform decision makers in health and other policy domains on options for action and possible measures against COVID-19 and other public health emergencies. This initiative proved particularly valuable, especially during the early phases of the pandemic, when there was limited information for countries to draw on as they formulated their own policy response to the pandemic. Our perspectives paper highlights some key challenges within health systems that the HSRM was able to identify during the pandemic and considers policy options countries put in place in response. Our research contributes to literature on emergency responses and recovery, health systems performance assessment, particularly health system resilience, and showcases the Observatory experience on how to design such a data collection tool, as well as how to leverage its findings to support cross-country learning.

How resilient is health financing policy in Europe to economic shocks? Evidence from the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 global financial crisis.

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an economic shock just ten years after the shock of the 2008 global financial crisis. Economic shocks are a challenge for health systems because they reduce government revenue at the same time as they increase the need for publicly financed health care. This article explores the resilience of health financing policy to economic shocks by reviewing policy responses to the financial crisis and COVID-19 in Europe. It finds that some health systems were weakened by responses to the 2008 crisis. Responses to the pandemic show evidence of lessons learnt from the earlier crisis but also reveal weaknesses in health financing policy that limit national preparedness to face economic shocks, particularly in countries with social health insurance schemes. These weaknesses highlight where permanent changes are needed to strengthen resilience in future: countries will have to find ways to reduce cyclicality in coverage policy and revenue-raising; increase the priority given to health in allocating public spending; and ensure that resources are used to meet equity and efficiency goals. Although many health systems are likely to face budgetary pressure in the years ahead, the experience of the 2008 crisis shows that austerity is not an option because it undermines resilience and progress towards universal health coverage.

The politics of healthy ageing: myths and realities

Research from the European Observatory’s Economics of Health and Active Ageing series finds overwhelmingly that population ageing is not a major problem for the sustainability of health care systems or societies. So why is it so often treated as a threat? This brief draws on a book presenting and synthesizing the international evidence on this question. It first identifies three myths that are widely influential in debates about ageing. The myths are that ageing societies are fiscally unsustainable, that older people prefer better benefits for themselves at the expense of younger people, and that politicians give older people what they want – benefits for older people at the expense of younger generations. If these myths were true, there would indeed be a major crisis in the increasing number of ageing societies. The brief and research discussed in it find that none of these three myths is true. The brief then reviews evidence on the possibility of ‘win–win’ politics that produce good outcomes for people of all ages. In terms of policy design, this means focusing on life-course policies. Life-course approaches have extensive implications for policy because they suggest ways to make policies that invest for the future at every stage of people’s lives. They also have distinctive politics because they ask for political leaders, interests and advocates to form coalitions among different groups that mutually benefit from the same policies. The brief concludes with lessons on ways to develop political coalitions in support of life-course policies.

Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: Does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?

Research often suggests that population ageing will be detrimental for the economy due to increased labour market exits and lost productivity, however the role of population health and disability at older ages is not well established. We estimate the relationship between the size of the older working age population and economic growth across 180 countries from 1990 to 2017 to explore whether a healthy older working age population, as measured by age-specific Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), can moderate the relationship between an ageing labour force and real per capita GDP growth. Using country and year fixed effects models, we find that although an increase in the 55-69 year old share of the total population is associated with a reduction in real per capita GDP growth, the decline in economic growth is moderated if the population at that age is in good health. To demonstrate the magnitude of effects, we present model predicted real per capita GDP growth for a selection of countries from 2020 through 2100 comparing the 2017 country-specific baseline YLD rate to a simulated 5% improvement in YLDs. Our findings demonstrate that economic slowdowns attributable to population ageing are avoidable through policy interventions supporting healthy and active ageing.

Do efficiency gains really translate into more budget for health? An assessment framework and country applications.

Efficiency has historically been considered a key mechanism to increase the amount of available revenues to the health sector, enabling countries to expand services and benefits to progress towards universal health coverage (UHC). Country experience indicates, however, that efficiency gains do not automatically translate into greater budget for health, to additional revenues for the sector. This article proposes a framework to assess whether and how efficiency interventions are likely to increase budgetary space in health systems Based on a review of the literature and country experiences, we suggest three enabling conditions that must be met in order to transform efficiency gains into budgetary gains for health. First there must be well-defined efficiency interventions that target health system inputs, implemented over a medium-term time frame. Second, efficiency interventions must generate financial gains that are quantifiable either pre- or post-intervention. Third, public financial management systems must allow those gains to be kept within the health sector and repurposed towards priority health needs. When these conditions are not met, efficiency gains do not lead to more budgetary space for health. Rather, the gains may instead result in budget cuts that can be detrimental to health systems' outputs and ultimately disincentivize further attempts to improve efficiency in the sector. The framework, when applied, offers an opportunity for policymakers to reconcile efficiency and budget expansion goals in health.

Who should be vaccinated first? Comparing vaccine prioritization strategies in Israel and European countries using the Covid-19 Health System Response Monitor.

The rapid rollout of Israel's vaccination program has led to considerable international interest. In this brief commentary we consider how the criteria for vaccination priority groups differ between Israel and selected European countries. We argue that following the Israeli approach of using broad criteria for prioritization- i.e. having fewer groups and a lower age threshold- could have several beneficial effects, including more manageable logistics and fewer roll out delays, as well as potentially reducing pressure on hospitals. With an increasing supply of vaccines becoming available rapidly in much of Europe, countries could consider following the approach of Israel and adopting broader priority criteria going forward.

Health and social care near the end of life: can policies reduce costs and improve outcomes?

This brief reviews the evidence on health and social care needs and expenditures at the end of life. End of life costs are the main reason for high per person spending levels observed at older ages in many European countries. However, there is huge variation between individuals, with estimates suggesting that just 10% of people near the end of life are responsible for over 60% of total end of life health and social care expenditures. High-cost individuals tend to be frail people with multiple chronic illnesses who use considerable hospital and social care services.In most European countries, there will be large increases in annual deaths in the coming years as the ‘baby boom’ generation ages and improved survival ultimately leads to more deaths each year. This will inevitably lead to growth in end of life needs and, ultimately, spending levels. However, there are a number of strategies available to address these challenges. Some end of life needs can be reduced with more active public health measures and active rehabilitation, much of which can be very cost-effective. More active assessment of care needs can also significantly improve the experiences of patients and families, reduce unnecessary tests and interventions, will not shorten survival, and can help to limit the growth in costs.

Станет ли старение населения концом социального государства? Обзор фактических данных и варианты политики

Данный краткий обзор представляет общую информацию и является введением в серию обзоров «Экономика здорового и активного старения». В нем рассматриваются основные фактические данные о расходах на здравоохранение и долгосрочный уход, связанных со старением, с тем чтобы лучше понять ожидаемое увеличение затрат в связи с изменением возрастного состава населения. В то же время в данном кратком обзоре обсуждается, каким образом пожилые люди могут вносить и вносят значимый вклад как в экономическом, так и в социальном плане, особенно если они способны оставаться здоровыми и активными в пожилом возрасте, формируя так называемую «серебряную экономику». В заключение данного обзора рассматриваются отдельные меры политики, которые продемонстрировали своюдейственность в поддержании здоровья и активного долголетия пожилых людей, либо могут иным образом укреплять устойчивые системы ухода в более широком контексте старения населения.